How Will The President Shape Louisiana’s 2026 Senate Race?

Donald Trump’s name won’t be on the ballot in 2026—but his agenda will be.

In Louisiana, that’s no small thing. The Trump movement remains the single most powerful force shaping the state’s Republican politics, defining not just ideology but identity. The 2026 cycle, anchored by a fiercely contested U.S. Senate race, will serve as a referendum on whether that movement still commands total loyalty—or whether some of its energy has begun to drift.

Nowhere is that tension clearer than in the contrast between Sen. Bill Cassidy and Gov. Jeff Landry. Cassidy’s vote to convict Trump during the second impeachment trial marked a permanent break with much of the GOP base. Though he’s tried to mend fences through social media posts and campaign ads highlighting conservative wins, the distrust lingers. Landry, meanwhile, built his rise on an unapologetically pro-Trump message—defending the president during the 2020 legal challenges and embracing his populist tone long before it was fashionable among Louisiana Republicans.

That split now defines the state’s party: Cassidy’s establishment pragmatism versus Landry’s America-First authenticity. And yet, what’s striking about the 2026 Senate field is that none of the announced candidates can credibly claim Trump’s full support—or even his attention.

John Fleming routinely cites his time in the Trump administration as evidence of closeness, but if the bond were truly strong, the endorsement would already be there. To date, Trump hasn’t mentioned Fleming once. That silence is telling.

Blake Miguez is trying to fill the MAGA lane, but his reach remains regional and his campaign operation limited. Kathy Seiden is still largely unknown outside her suburban base, and Cassidy, of course, faces his own credibility problem after years of open criticism of Trump’s leadership.

The result is a curious political moment: a state where Trump dominates the Republican imagination, yet no candidate in its marquee race carries his blessing. There’s a clear vacuum—a space waiting to be filled by a truly Trump-backed contender with the stature, resources, and credibility to unite the party’s populist and conservative wings.

Until that happens, Louisiana’s Senate race will be defined by pretenders to the throne—each claiming proximity to Trump, none possessing the real thing.

And that may be the biggest storyline of 2026: not who challenges Cassidy, but who can actually convince voters they represent the continuation of the Trump era in Louisiana.